One year later: Chamber report details total tariff impact on NYC

New York, NY (February 1, 2026) — One year after federal tariffs took effect, the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce today released a comprehensive analysis revealing the severe economic toll on New York City households and businesses. The report documents that the average New York household faces $4,200 in additional annual costs—more than three times the national average—while small businesses across the NYC metro area are absorbing approximately $4.5 billion in tariff-related expenses. (See methodology below.)

The report, titled "The Tariff 'Tax' at One Year," moves beyond speculation to examine hard data from the past 12 months, showing that New York City’s reliance on global supply chains, international tourism, and materials-intensive construction makes the city uniquely vulnerable to tariff impacts.

"These tariffs are functioning as a massive hidden tax on New York’s Main Street," said Jessica Walker, President and CEO of the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce. "While the impact is national, the pain is decidedly local. Our small businesses cannot absorb 20% cost spikes or wait out geopolitical disputes. We’re seeing the weakest quarter for business formation in five years, and job growth has declined by 70% year-over-year."

Key Findings:

NYC Inflation Outpacing the Nation: NYC-area inflation hit 3.4% in 2025 compared to 2.7% nationally, with core inflation remaining stubbornly high at 3.2%. New Yorkers are feeling price pressure on top of an already high cost of living that other regions can more easily avoid.

Household Impact: New York State estimates the tariffs function effectively as a 21% tax on goods imported here, translating to $4,200 in annual added costs for the average New York household—significantly higher than national estimates of $1,200-$3,800.

Small Business Crisis: NYC metro area small businesses are absorbing approximately $4.5 billion annually in added tariff costs, with the burden swelling to $6.9 billion across New York State. Import-dependent sectors are bearing the brunt, particularly medical equipment and miscellaneous manufacturing (38.4% of import value), textiles and leather, and electronics and machinery.

Business Closures Accelerating: In Q2 2025, as tariffs ramped up, NYC saw a net loss of approximately 4,900 businesses (8,400 closures versus only 3,500 starts)—the weakest quarter for business formation in five years.

Hiring Freeze: Tariff uncertainty led to a "wait and see" approach, with NYC adding just 33,400 private-sector jobs in 2025—a staggering 70% decline from the 114,500 jobs added in 2024.

Tourism Decline: International visitation fell 4.9% in 2025, declining from 12.9 million visitors in 2024 to 12.3 million in 2025. NYC Tourism + Conventions explicitly links this drop to the tariff environment, with the steepest decline coming from Canadian visitors (down 19%).

Construction Costs Rising: At a moment when NYC desperately needs housing, tariff pressure has raised construction materials costs by 8.5%–9.6%, driving up total project costs by nearly 5%. This creates a "feasibility gap" that risks stalling new housing starts.

In February 2025, the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce opposed these tariffs, warning they would function as a tax on consumers and a brake on recovery. The new report confirms those predictions, documenting record business closures and stalled hiring.

"The data is clear: federal trade policy is being paid for with New York City jobs," Walker continued. "We urgently renew our call for the federal administration to implement targeted exemptions to shield small businesses. If tariffs must remain a tool of foreign policy, they must not become a weapon against domestic entrepreneurs."

The full report includes detailed analysis and sourcing from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York State Executive Chamber, Office of the NYC Comptroller, NYC Tourism + Conventions, and other authoritative sources.

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Methodology for the $4.5B Small Business Cost Figure

Small Business Definition: This analysis follows the definition used in the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's small-business tariff analysis: firms with fewer than 500 employees. This definition is also used by the Department of Commerce and Census Bureau in trade statistics. Nationally, small businesses represent 97% of all U.S. importers. According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, small business importers collectively imported $868 billion in 2023; as a share of total U.S. goods imports of $3,112.4 billion (Bureau of Economic Analysis), this represents approximately 28% of total import value.

Geographic Scope: This analysis provides estimates for both New York State overall and for the New York State portion of the NYC metropolitan area specifically. The NYC metro region figure includes New York City's five boroughs, Long Island (Nassau and Suffolk counties), and certain Hudson Valley counties including Westchester, Rockland, Putnam, Dutchess, and Orange. This excludes the New Jersey portion of the broader NYC metropolitan statistical area. There is no clean way to isolate the five boroughs of NYC alone from available import data, so the downstate figures represent the broader NY portion of the metro region.

Calculation: This estimate is based on the NY portion of NYC Metro area imports of $103.2 billion (2023 data, NYS Comptroller's BTS-based commodity flow estimates), applying the national small business import share (28% of total imports = $28.9 billion in regional small business imports) and current effective tariff rate estimates from Yale Budget Lab's State of Tariffs report (January 19, 2026).

The ~$4.5 billion figure represents the central estimate using Yale's current-policy effective rate estimates as of January 19, 2026. The range of $4.1 billion to $4.9 billion reflects Yale's post-consumption-shift rate (14.3%) and pre-shift rate (16.9%) respectively, applied to the estimated small business import base.