Chamber releases data on local economy and health of storefront businesses

The Manhattan market is showing record levels of employment, but key data indicates slower momentum going into 2026, according to economic experts and business leaders at the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce’s State of Manhattan Meeting on December 3.

The panelists at the event – including Michael Normyle, U.S. Economist at Nasdaq, Jessica Walker, President and CEO of the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce, and Deborah Koenigsberger and Patrick Hall, two Manhattan-based business owners and Chamber Board Members – provided a snapshot of the headwinds, challenges, and opportunities that Manhattan businesses are facing ahead of 2026.

“Manhattan’s business community has a strong foundation, but momentum is slowing as job growth cools off, costs continue to rise, and global fluctuations impact local business owners’ day-to-day,” said Jessica Walker, President and CEO of the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce. “We’ve seen thousands of new businesses open since the pandemic, a wave of experiential retail concepts, and a surge in tourism and foot traffic that positions us for a ‘summer of opportunity’ in 2026 with the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence and the World Cup. While challenges like rising vacancies and visitor patterns persist, it’s clear that our city – and Manhattan in particular – is still the place to be.”

Manhattan is seeing record employment but slower momentum.

Private sector employment has reached pre-pandemic levels – and in some cases has exceeded them – but the pace of job growth has cooled compared to 2022 and 2023. Healthcare, education, and local services have made gains, while hiring across finance, professional services, and tech has softened. The job market in Manhattan in 2025 remains robust, but a slower, more tempered trajectory may be on the horizon for next year.

Manhattan tourism is strong – for now.

Tourism remains one of Manhattan’s most reliable economic engines, powering thousands of jobs at hotels, restaurants, and retailers – all of which are continuing to see strong spending thanks to high volumes of domestic travelers. However, the sector remains susceptible to global travel trends; and while the current outlook is strong, it will be important for the city and local business owners to prepare for future volatility. The upcoming “summer of opportunity” presents a clear occasion to drive momentum in this sector.

While tourism is strong and promotes healthy business traffic, it does not always correlate to storefront occupancy, an ongoing challenge in Manhattan, which the Chamber found has a higher storefront vacancy rate (13.43%) than across New York City (11.16%). For example, recent data shows that West Harlem has the least annual foot traffic across districts (18.4M+) but sits in the top two districts with the lowest vacancy (9.07%).

The small business landscape is growing, but business owners face immense pressures.

Street-level activity across Manhattan indicates healthy foot traffic trends and continued growth as business owners introduce new and innovative retail concepts; but there are clear challenges for independent owners, particularly in the face of evolving tariffs, rising operating costs, and affordability challenges. In a recent survey by the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce, nearly half of businesses feel their health is average (45%), while a quarter are struggling (25%).

To sustain growth for Manhattan’s business landscape, it will be important for local government officials to make moves that support business owners’ pain points directly and help to provide them with more stability. The survey also found that respondents view the NYC government as largely ineffective in promoting the wellbeing of small retail businesses: 42% said very ineffective, 26% said somewhat ineffective, and 32% said other/effective.